Benjamin Netanyahu may be back – but the true victory belongs to Israel’s far right

Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightwing coalition appears headed to victory in Israel’s parliamentary elections. Against the backdrop of his ongoing bribery and corruption trial, the win may provide him with a badly needed get out of jail card. But he is not the election’s biggest winner. That honour goes to Israel’s Religious Zionism party.

The results offer them a place in the sun and political legitimacy. They have moved from the fringe to the mainstream, with 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset. “The time has come for us to reassert ownership of this state,” the neo-Kahanist Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the party, told his fans.

On Tuesday night, he attained what his hero, Meir Kahane – the assassinated extremist rabbi who was banned from Israeli electoral politics – only dreamed about. Ben-Gvir will wield real power. He may emerge as minister of public security, in charge of the country’s police. It is a job he has already demanded of Netanyahu. That means the hard right would have a guiding hand on the country’s internal security apparatus. Ben-Gvir has pledged to go easy on the police and military.

The elevation of supremacists in Israeli politics will put a strain on the country’s global relationships. Most strikingly, the ascendance of the Religious Zionism party and Ben-Gvir will discomfit the Biden White House and test the US-Israel alliance. In September, Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate’s foreign relations committee, warned Netanyahu against working with them. As such, Ben-Gvir may earn the status of persona non grata, shunned by the US administration.

Democratic discomfort with a Netanyahu-led government will, however, probably put a smile on Republican faces. Amid America’s cold civil war, Israel is now another hot-button issue.

Along with abortion, crime and the wall, it sits smack in the middle of the red-blue divide. Expect the GOP to embrace Israel but stay mum over white supremacy and antisemitism from the right. Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir provide political cover. Put differently, Joe Biden may be the last pro-Israel Democratic president.

The latest election may also test the durability of the Abraham Accords, the agreements normalising relations between Israel, and the Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. They have generated a boom in investment and trade. Israelis now freely travel to Dubai and Marrakech. But Tel Aviv is not, and may never become, an Arab tourist destination, much the same way there are few travellers from Egypt and Jordan. In other words, the deal is more transactional than organic. Think government to government, not people to people.

In the run-up to the election, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, the UAE’s foreign minister, conveyed his concerns to Netanyahu about Religious Zionism and Ben-Gvir. The Palestinians may not be the top priority of the Gulf states, but they can elicit lip service.

With the Republicans almost certain to retake the House of Representatives and having at least even odds of regaining the Senate, Netanyahu has leeway in chivvying Biden and the Democrats. He did it before and will not hesitate to do it again. But the Emiratis are a different story. Their concerns carry weight. The net worth of Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), the country’s president, is pegged at $30bn, his family’s wealth exceeds $150bn. The UAE also maintains a sovereign wealth fund.

When MBZ talks, Netanyahu will probably listen. Indeed, the accords are a point of pride for him: his signature is on them. How hard he and his government test those newfound friendships may become the biggest question of all.

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